Russian mercenary chief ‘may come to pose threat to Putin’s rule’; Kremlin official ‘wants to replace’ president | War latest

We mentioned earlier today the increasingly significant role the Wagner mercenary group found, Yevgeniy Prigozhin, was playing in the reported power struggle around Vladimir Putin (see 11am post). 

The Institute for the Study of War think tank has today released its latest assessment of the key issues in the war, and it makes intriguing reading.

Citing the same comments reported in our earlier post, from Ukrainian military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov, one section of the analysis focuses on Mr Prigozhin.

“Prigozhin continues to accrue power and is setting up a military structure parallel to the Russian Armed Forces, which may come to pose a threat to Putin’s rule — at least within the information space,” the group said.

“Russian milbloggers [military bloggers] reported that Prigozhin is sponsoring the formation of a Wagner-based volunteer battalion recruited by a Russian war criminal and former Federal Security Service (FSB) officer Igor Girkin…. an avid critic of the Russian higher military command and a prominent figure among the Russian ultra-nationalists who participated in the annexation of Crimea or the illegal Russian seizures of Ukrainian territory in Donbas in 2014.”

It continues: “Prigozhin holds a uniquely advantageous position within the Russian state structure and information space that allows him to expand his constituency in Russia more readily than the disgraced Russian higher military command.

“Prigozhin can freely promote himself and his forces while criticizing Kremlin officials or the Russian Armed Force without fear of pushback.

“Putin depends on Wagner forces in Bakhmut and is likely attempting to appease Prigozhin despite the fact that Prigozhin is undermining the conventional Russian military.”

Mr Prigozhin it adds, “also benefits from holding no formal position of responsibility”.

“He is not in command of any axis in Ukraine nor in charge of any major bureaucratic effort,” the assessment says.

“He can critique those who are in positions of authority freely without fear that anyone can point to something he was specifically responsible for that he failed to achieve.”

Another part of the analysis says Russia is unlikely to be preparing an imminent false-flag dirty bomb attack.

We’ll bring you more on this assessment in a subsequent post.