Yoon’s push for South Korea-Japan thaw meets hesitancy in Tokyo

TOKYO — South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol has already made big waves barely a month into office, especially when it comes to national security.

When North Korea fired eight short-range ballistic missiles into the ocean on June 5, South Korea fired eight surface-to-surface missiles together with the U.S. the very next day — a drastic shift from Seoul’s more conciliatory approach under former President Moon Jae-in.

In addition to deepening the alliance with the U.S., South Korea is also accelerating three-way talks with Japan. Yoon sees the revival of trilateral cooperation as central to deterring North Korea, which has test fired at least 28 missiles — a record pace — so far in 2022.

But South Korea aims to bridge its rift with Japan on more than just the North Korea threat.

Yoon’s team has been looking to build closer ties with Japan based on the countries’ shared strategies and values. They first want to discuss how South Korea and Japan could cooperate in the region before tackling controversial historical issues — the opposite approach of how the countries have typically handled negotiations.

Yoon’s top priority is establishing a bilateral strategic dialogue, which at its core is about national security. The plan is to first start trilateral discussions and drills with the U.S., which the South Korean public would likely find more palatable.

South Korean Foreign Minister Park Jin met with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Monday. At a news conference afterward, he called for a normalization of the General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) — an intelligence-sharing pact that nearly fell apart under Moon, and an important part of trilateral cooperation with Japan.

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol, right, meets with Fukushiro Nukaga, head of the Japan-Korea Parliamentarians’ Union, a cross-party group of Japanese lawmakers for promoting bilateral ties, in Seoul on May 11. 

  © Kyodo

His second priority is to create a solid foundation for exchanges between South Korean and Japanese youth. Yoon met with members of the Japan-Korea Parliamentarians’ Union in Seoul the day after his inauguration, and expressed his interest in resuming flights between Gimpo Airport near Seoul and Haneda Airport in Tokyo as soon as possible. The route has been suspended due to the coronavirus pandemic.

The fact that Yoon addressed what appeared to be a relatively minor topic caused a stir in South Korea. But Yoon is especially interested in the issue.

After South Korea restarted issuing tourist visas, its embassy in Tokyo and consulate in Osaka were flooded with applicants. South Korean Justice Minister Han Dong-hoon, who spearheaded the decision, is considered one of Yoon’s closest allies.

Security cooperation would be a major step forward for Japan-South Korean ties. The South Korean Supreme Court in 2018 ordered a Japanese company to compensate those forced to work there during World War II. Then in 2019, the Japanese government tightened controls on chemical exports used for semiconductors to South Korea. Tokyo at the time cited concerns that the chemicals could be used for military purposes.

If the countries can restore bilateral trust through greater security cooperation, they would be in a better position to ease trade restrictions as well.

However, the Japanese side has thrown a wrench into Yoon’s plans for detente. Many political leaders in Tokyo have been perplexed by how quickly things are shifting under the new South Korean leader.

The South Korean government had wanted Park to visit Japan around Monday, according to one diplomatic source, so he could lay the groundwork for Yoon and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to meet on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Spain that starts June 29.

The Japanese side instead asked him to visit after Japan’s upper house election on July 10. Though Yoon and Kishida could still hold an informal chat at the NATO summit, they are unlikely to sit down for a full-fledged summit without their foreign ministers meeting in advance.

South Korea had also aimed to restart the Haneda-Gimpo flights on June 1, but faces major delays due partly to a lack of communication with the Japanese side.

Why the hesitation in Tokyo? Though Japan has welcomed Yoon’s focus on current and future issues, like North Korea, it is frustrated by the lack of progress on wartime labor and other historical issues it views as the central challenge in bilateral ties. With upper house elections coming up, lawmakers from the ruling Liberal Democratic Party are also concerned about alienating their conservative voter base, which tends to be hawkish on South Korea.

South Korea is not just sitting idly by. In terms of the wartime labor issue, a proposal for the South Korean government to compensate the former workers instead of Japanese companies is gaining momentum. Under the plan, a fund backed by both Japanese and South Korean companies would repay the South Korean government. Participation in the fund would be voluntary.

South Korean Ambassador to Japan Yun Duk-min has touched on this plan. The Yoon administration is believed to be weighing the public’s opinion as well.

Yun Duk-min, the foreign policy expert recently named South Korea’s next ambassador to Japan, speaks at the Future of Asia conference in Tokyo on May 26.

Many in South Korea believe Yoon prefers a top-down approach to governing. But the payment scheme for plaintiffs in wartime labor cases faces many hurdles. Bills and the budget for the program need to be approved by a parliament controlled by opposition lawmakers.

Crucially, if the plaintiffs decide they will not accept compensation payments from the South Korean government, the entire plan will fall apart.

Yoon’s advisers are cautious because they do not want to repeat the mistake of the hastily put-together agreement on wartime comfort women, which was overturned by South Korea after a government change.

“The government is consumed with massive organizational changes it took over from the Moon government as well as with personnel appointments,” said a government source. “It has not been able to tackle Japan policy.”

Yoon is also wary of the opposition’s attempt to label him as “friendly to Japan.”

Talks between South Korea and Japan are expected to pick up pace after Japan’s upper house election, giving the sides a relatively short window for agreement.

Japan’s concern is that assets seized in wartime labor lawsuits in South Korea could be sold and cashed as early as August. The South Korean government, on the other hand, is betting that the country’s courts will not take action if the two countries make headway in diplomatic talks. Tensions remain high.

Yoon’s scenario may go like this: First, he will ease anti-Japan sentiment at home through security cooperation amid rising regional threats as well as through expanded bilateral exchanges. If his approval ratings rise, he will be able to get the public behind the government payment scheme.

If Yoon and Kishida can demonstrate a shared determination to resolve the matter in Spain at the end of June, that could also send a message to the South Korean judiciary.