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With help from Joseph Gedeon and Daniel Lippman
FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — Biden administration officials have weighed a proposal to name a new top diplomat to focus on long-term Israeli-Palestinian relations, but for now are sticking with a post that is focused on the more immediate humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip, a U.S. official told NatSecDaily.
However, if the conditions on the ground change and the current post is vacated, the administration could once again consider creating a position with the broader mandate.
Two other current U.S. officials and two former U.S. officials confirmed that such discussions have been happening in the administration, though each person — all granted anonymity to describe sensitive deliberations — offered different predictions for what a future such broader role could entail.
The post that the administration decided to create in the immediate aftermath of the Hamas militant group’s Oct. 7 attack on Israel is “special envoy for Middle East humanitarian issues” and is held by DAVID SATTERFIELD, a veteran diplomat and regional specialist who returned to government for the role. He has focused on finding ways to provide Palestinians in Gaza with more food, water and medical aid as the territory faces Israeli bombardment.
If and when he leaves, the first U.S. official said, the administration could revamp the role or create a brand new one.
One of the former officials said creating a role with a broader mandate soon could provide President JOE BIDEN and his top aides an opportunity to hand off some aspects of dealing with a challenging crisis during a presidential election year. The other former official predicted a future such position would still have a large, likely primary humanitarian focus.
The details of the position also could impact whether the position must be confirmed by the Senate, per new rules passed a few years ago by lawmakers unhappy with the proliferation of special envoys, representatives, coordinators and the like whom they were unable to vet.
CONFLICTING GAZA HOSPITAL REPORTS: In November, Israel’s military raided Al-Shifa Hospital in Gaza, claiming that Hamas had been using it as a headquarters to launch attacks. But conflicting reports in American media tell different stories about the operation, which drew international scrutiny.
American spy agencies believe Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad militant group commanded forces and held hostages in the Al-Shifa Hospital, per a U.S. official citing declassified intelligence: “We have information that continues to support our conclusion that Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad used the Al-Shifa hospital complex and sites beneath it to house command infrastructure, exercise certain command and control activities, store some weapons, and hold at least a few hostages.
“We have information — obtained after the November 15 IDF operation — that Hamas members located at the hospital had largely evacuated days earlier as the IDF approached the Al-Shifa complex and that Hamas destroyed documents and electronics at the complex in advance of the IDF’s operation,” the official continued. “The U.S. intelligence community is confident in its judgment on this topic and has independently corroborated information.”
The New York Times’ JULIAN BARNES was first to report on the intelligence this week.
But in December, an in-depth Washington Post analysis found that “evidence presented by the Israeli government falls short of showing that Hamas had been using the hospital as a command and control center.” This raised questions about whether the civilian harm caused by Israel’s operation was proportionate to the assessed threat.
The Times notes the Post’s reporting, but emphasized that U.S. officials still believe the hospital was used by Hamas. The declassified intel represents the most current American assessment, officials told the Times.
“While the spy agencies provided no visual evidence, a U.S. official said they were confident in their assessment because it was based on information collected by Israel and America’s own intelligence, gathered independently,” the Times wrote.
ISRAEL MILITARY SHIFT: The Biden administration sees Israel’s withdrawal of thousands of troops from Gaza as a sign it’s listening to Washington and shifting to lower-intensity military operations, Alex and LARA SELIGMAN report, though the transition is going slower than the U.S. would like.
The Israeli military confirmed on Monday that it was beginning to withdraw five brigades from operations in Gaza, including many reservists, citing the growing toll of the deployments on Israel’s economy.
U.S. officials, who were granted anonymity to speak about sensitive discussions, are now breathing small sighs of relief. They view the reduction as a signal that Israel is beginning to finally shift away from large-scale bombing and more toward targeted, surgical strikes on senior Hamas leaders — a move the U.S. has long been urging.
“What we’re seeing is the beginning of a transition,” one U.S. official said. A second official added that the administration is pleased to see the shift but that the U.S. would have preferred the changes much sooner.
HOSTAGE TALKS LIKELY DELAYED: The killing of top Hamas official SALEH AROURI in Beirut on Tuesday will likely set back talks to pause fighting between Israel and Hamas to exchange hostages, a senior U.S. official told The New York Times’ ERIC SCHMITT.
Gaza’s Hamas leader YAHYA “SINWAR is feeling the noose tightening, and I don’t know if he’ll be willing to proceed with what was being negotiated,” the official told the Times.
In his first speech since Arouri’s death, Hezbollah head HASSAN NASRALLAH made clear today that the group is not afraid of all-out war — but stopped short of vowing escalated attacks against Israel.
Arouri’s killing outside of Palestinian territories has raised concerns about the war spreading throughout the region. Those fears continued today after two explosions at a commemoration for Iran’s former top general QASSEM SOLEIMANI killed more than 100 people, our own CLAUDIA CHIAPPA reports.
No one has claimed responsibility for that attack, or Tuesday’s strike in Beirut. Iranian officials called the explosions “terroristic.” The country has numerous adversaries who could be behind the attack, including exile groups, militant organizations and state actors. But the fact that it targeted an event for Soleimani — who was killed in a U.S. drone strike in 2020 — could spark more anger toward the West.
State Department spokesperson MATTHEW MILLER told reporters today that the U.S. was not involved in the explosions and it has no information that would lead it to believe Israel was, either. Shortly thereafter, National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY also said the U.S. had “no indication” that Israel was involved.
“If it was Israel, it is unlikely that it was done in cooperation with the United States,” said MICK MULROY, formerly of the CIA and a top Pentagon official for the Middle East. “The U.S. policy has been to do everything possible to keep this war from expanding into a regional conflict. This action could challenge that policy as Iran will likely feel compelled to directly respond.”
HOUTHIS BE WARNED: A group of Western countries including the United States today warned the Iran-backed Houthis against further attacks in the Red Sea, which have raised fears about fighting in the Middle East escalating, our own MATT HONEYCOMBE-FOSTER reports.
“Ongoing Houthi attacks in the Red Sea are illegal, unacceptable, and profoundly destabilizing. There is no lawful justification for intentionally targeting civilian shipping and naval vessels,” reads the statement by the U.S., Australia, Bahrain, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Germany, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, New Zealand and the U.K.
The coalition called for collective action to stop the attacks, outlining how they affect global trade through the waters.
“The Houthis will bear the responsibility of the consequences should they continue to threaten lives, the global economy, and free flow of commerce in the region’s critical waterways.”
POW EXCHANGE: Russia and Ukraine have exchanged hundreds of prisoners of war in a deal brokered by the United Arab Emirates, The Associated Press reports, the biggest single release of its kind since the war began.
“Ukrainian authorities said that 230 Ukrainian prisoners of war returned home. Russia’s Defense Ministry said that 248 Russian servicemen have been freed from Ukrainian captivity,” per the AP.
There have been other large exchanges throughout the nearly two-year war, a sign that the warring parties can make deals even as they strike one another following Russia’s invasion. Russia is attacking Ukrainian cities with drones and missiles while Ukraine is targeting the area around Belgorod, which is near the Ukraine border.
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IOWA AND IMMIGRATION: GOP presidential candidates DONALD TRUMP and RON DeSANTIS took to the pages of the Des Moines Register to outline their immigration policies if elected president. Here are the takeaways from each:
Trump: On his first day back in office, the former president wrote that he would terminate “every open borders policy” that the Biden administration has put in place, replacing them with his own stronger measures.
Then, Trump would begin a “record-setting deportation operation,” some of which was outlined in a NYT piece in November. That will include shifting massive portions of federal law enforcement to focus on immigration, he said, naming the FBI, the Drug Enforcement Administration; the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives; and the Department of Homeland Security specifically.
Trump has previously voiced his intention to deport huge numbers of immigrants, but this is the first time we’ve seen him pledge to do so on his first day back in office.
DeSantis: The Florida governor said he would declare a national emergency and shut down all illegal entries on his first day as commander-in-chief. He railed against “phony” asylum claims, and promised to empower ICE agents to deport immigrants.
“There will be consequences for other nations — like Mexico and those in Central America — that allow this travesty to continue,” he wrote. “They will either stop enabling illegal immigration through their jurisdictions and into America or face diplomatic and economic retaliation.”
DEEPFAKE DEMOCRACY: As the election year begins, top U.S. officials are increasingly concerned that China, Iran and Russia could use generative AI for election meddling through weaponized disinformation at unprecedented levels.
That’s according to a new Foreign Affairs article penned by Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency Director JEN EASTERLY, Kansas Secretary of State SCOTT SCHWAB and CISA senior election security adviser CAIT CONLEY. From voter registration to vote counting, every step of the electoral process could be impacted, they warn.
“Specifically, generative AI will amplify cybersecurity risks and make it easier, faster, and cheaper to flood the country with fake content,” the officials write. For instance, AI can automate cyberattacks, launch bot campaigns and create personalized harassment to intimidate voters and election officials.
Read: French far right calls out ‘cabal’ after new report on Russian interference by our own VICTOR GOURY-LAFFONT
PATRIOT DEAL: NATO’s procurement arm will support a coalition of member countries with a contract to buy up to 1,000 Patriot air defense missiles, the military alliance announced today.
The contract, which will help Germany, the Netherlands, Romania and Spain, will expand Europe’s production of Patriots, “ensuring the replenishment of Allied stockpiles,” according to the statement.
COMLOG, a joint venture between Raytheon and German company MBDA, was awarded the $5.5 billion contract. The order will support the creation of a production facility for the missiles in Germany.
QATAR IN THE MIDDLE: Qatar is smack in the middle of two cases, one implicating a U.S. senator and the other two Trump-aligned GOP operatives.
“Sen. BOB MENENDEZ spoke kindly of Qatar in official proceedings to help a developer friend who paid him bribes,” per our own MATT FRIEDMAN, citing new legal filings against the New Jersey Democrat. This indictment adds to other allegations of the former Senate Foreign Relations Committee chief abusing his influence.
“Menendez introduced co-defendant FRED DAIBES, a developer, to a member of the Qatari royal family and principal of a state-linked investment company as Daibes sought financing for a major real estate project,” Matt reports, citing the unsealed indictment.
Menendez has already been charged with seeking to aid the Egyptian government and help another co-defendant, WAEL HANA, secure a lucrative, exclusive Halal certification contract with the Egyptian government in exchange for hundreds of thousands of dollars in cash and gold bars, as well as a new car for his wife.
Menendez has long denied any wrongdoing.
Meanwhile: “BARRY BENNETT and DOUG WATTS acknowledged they accepted funds from the Qatari government in exchange for promoting efforts to influence U.S. policy in the Middle East and engaged in a scheme to mislead investigators about those dealings,” our own JOSH GERSTEIN, KYLE CHENEY and CAITLIN OPRYSKO report. “The two men face charges for scheming to conceal work for a foreign government and making false statements about their work.”
‘STUPID, HONEST’: South Korea’s policy is to deter its northern neighbor from attacks against it. That “stupid, honest” stance gives North Korea permission to develop nuclear weapons, one of the top officials in Pyongyang said in a statement today.
“This, again, gives us justification and validity to secure more overwhelming nuke combat capability … a truly ‘valuable gift’!” KIM YO JONG, sister of North Korean leader KIM JONG UN, said in a statement directed at South Korea’s president carried by state-run media, as reported by NK News’ JEONGMIN KIM. “It’s much easier to deal with a stupid, honest man who has shown his hostility against [the] enemy than a wicked man with honey in his mouth and a sword in his heart.”
She released the statement just one day after her brother vowed that North Korea would no longer seek to reconcile or unify with South Korea.
South Korean President YOON SUK YEOL, a conservative, has pushed a harder line against North Korea than his more progressive predecessor. He has even flirted with the idea of having his country develop nuclear weapons in an effort to further deter Pyongyang.
— RACHEL FIORILL and JAMES BROWER, members of the litigation department and the national security group at Morrison Foerster, have been promoted to be partners at the firm.
— KATHY GANNON, The New York Times: It’s Time for America to Go Back to Afghanistan
— RORY TRUEX, The Washington Post: Where have all the American China experts gone?
— DRAGAN ĐILAS, POLITICO: How the West lost the plot on Serbia
For the first time in NatSec Daily history, there are no events to report. The New Year’s hangover is real.
Thanks to our editor, Emma Anderson, who we don’t believe should serve in her current role.
We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who is our emotional CEO.
