THE WHITE SMOKE SIGNAL — House Majority Whip TOM EMMER (R-Minn.) emerged from five rounds of conference voting as the GOP’s new nominee for speaker. In the end, he landed the majority of the House GOP’s support over Rep. MIKE JOHNSON (R-La.), who’d positioned himself to Emmer’s right, in a 117-97 vote.
Emmer triumphed at the end of a morning that began with Rep. GARY PALMER (R-Ala.) dropping out of the speaker race and then saw Reps. PETE SESSIONS (R-Texas), JACK BERGMAN (R-Mich.), AUSTIN SCOTT (R-Ga.), KEVIN HERN (R-Okla.) and BYRON DONALDS (R-Fla.) get eliminated, in that order. (Donalds withdrew.)
Now the big question is whether Emmer can reach 217 votes on the House floor, which will require unifying all but a handful of Republicans. Emmer reportedly dangled the prospect of a floor vote as soon as today.
In a closed-door roll call vote after Emmer won the nomination, there were somewhere between 20 and 30 holdouts who oppose him as of now, depending on which member’s count you trust.
That’s many more than he can afford to lose.
Emmer held the lead through every round of voting — a positive sign for him. “As the GOP’s chief vote-counter, Emmer has had nine months of experience trying to wrangle votes from across the Republican conference with a four-seat margin for error,” Olivia Beavers, Sarah Ferris and Jordain Carney write. “His allies have argued that those skills could help him.” But the grinding campaign to win the nomination over challengers from the right didn’t scream of momentum. (“Truly could not draw up a more problematic balloting scenario for achieving anything close to unity,” BRENDAN BUCK, a former aide to Speakers PAUL RYAN and JOHN BOEHNER, posted on X.)
Though Emmer is no moderate, opposition from the party’s right flank could be an issue: Rep. RICK ALLEN (R-Ga.) already cast himself as essentially a “Never Emmer” voter on the floor because of Emmer’s support for the Respect for Marriage Act, which enshrined protections for same-sex and interracial marriages. Rep. SCOTT PERRY (R-Pa.) said he’s “concerned” about Emmer’s spending record, including recent votes for a continuing resolution and to raise the debt ceiling. And DONALD TRUMP yesterday reposted LAURA LOOMER’s criticisms of Emmer on Truth Social.
One unlikely bit of help: Rep. DEAN PHILLIPS (D-Minn.), continuing to be a renegade in his party, said he’d sit out the speaker vote (thereby reducing the number Emmer needs) if his fellow Minnesotan agrees to certain votes and rules changes.
Related reads: The cryptocurrency industry will be celebrating today, as Emmer is among their biggest champions on the Hill, Jasper Goodman reports. … The Heritage Foundation is urging the next speaker to stand firm on immigration, Fox News’ Adam Shaw reports. In a brief sent to all the speaker candidates last night, Heritage said Republicans need to impeach DHS Secretary ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS, get H.R. 2 passed and not “squander another opportunity.”
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THE FLIPS KEEP COMING — In the third shocking flip from a former top Trump ally, attorney JENNA ELLIS today pleaded guilty to a felony count of aiding and abetting false statements/writings as part of the plot to overturn the 2020 election, Josh Gerstein and Kyle Cheney report. Ellis will face probation, $5,000 in restitution, an apology and — most notably — cooperation with Fulton County, Ga., DA FANI WILLIS’ prosecutors in other cases.
Speaking tearfully in court today, Ellis said that “if I knew then what I know now, I would have declined to represent Donald Trump in these post-election challenges.” Her guilty plea stemmed from the Trump world effort to convince Georgia lawmakers of false election fraud claims.
Along with SIDNEY POWELL and KENNETH CHESEBRO, Ellis’ plea “may reshape the case against Trump, supplying prosecutors with testimony from some of his closest advisers, who are now admitting for the first time that some of their actions crossed the line into criminality.”
Speaking of flips: MICHAEL COHEN just took the stand at Trump’s civil business fraud trial in NYC, where he claimed that one of the crimes he committed was at Trump’s direction. Live updates from NBC
CONGRESS
THE WHEELS ON THE MINIBUS — The Senate has landed an agreement for votes on amendments on the Agriculture-FDA, Transportation-HUD and Military Construction-VA spending bill “minibus,” per Caitlin Emma, kicking it into gear after more than a month of delay. There are 40 amendments, some of which will be packaged together.
Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER said today the minibus will come before the Biden administration’s supplemental funding request for Ukraine aid, Israel aid, border security and more, though he hopes to take that up quickly too.
There were some mixed signals today from Senate Republicans about the package. You can count Senate Armed Services ranking member ROGER WICKER (R-Miss.) as a supporter of linking Ukraine and Israel: “Their adversaries are in league together,” he said, per Burgess Everett. But Sen. JOHN CORNYN (R-Texas) dismissed President JOE BIDEN’s border money as insufficient without policy changes to deter migrants, per Punchbowl’s Andrew Desiderio.
Annals of influence: More than two dozen retired three- and four-star generals and admirals are fanning out across the Hill today to advocate for the supplemental, particularly the importance of linking Ukraine and Israel. Led by Adm. JAMES STAVRIDIS and Lt. Gen. ANTHONY ZINNI, the officers are in town as part of the U.S. Global Leadership Coalition National Security Advisory Council.
AMERICA AND THE WORLD
STORY OF THE DAY — Many Venezuelan migrants ignored Biden’s exhortations to apply to enter the U.S. legally instead of crossing the southern border. In a major feature, NYT’s Julie Turkewitz reports from the Darién Gap about one woman who obeyed — and, nearly a year later, is still stuck in misery in Honduras, waiting for humanitarian parole. DAYRY ALEXANDRA CUAURO and her daughter SARAH, 6, “live in a rusty shack with no running water, hiding from the violence just outside their door, haunted by a question that won’t go away: Should they have listened to President Biden?” Cuauro sees plenty of Venezuelans who went to the U.S. illegally and are now living much more happily, while “all she has gotten is an auto-reply.”
HOSTAGE NEGOTIATIONS, PART I — Talks among the U.S., Qatar, Israel, Hamas and Egypt are continuing over the possibility of Hamas releasing a big number of hostages, CNN’s MJ Lee, Kaitlan Collins, Kevin Liptak and Alex Marquardt report. Hamas wants more fuel to get into Gaza in exchange for the hostages, but Israel says no, among other complications. Though Israel has postponed its ground invasion for now, CNN reports that it likely won’t hold off for more than a few days.
HOSTAGE NEGOTIATIONS, PART II — PAUL WHELAN, an American imprisoned in Russia, had a tough message for Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN in August phone call, CNN’s Jennifer Hansler reports: “I told him point blank that leaving me here the first time painted a target on my back and leaving me here the second time basically signed a death warrant.” Whelan is pleading with the U.S. government to find a way to free him, though he says he’s confident that they’re working on it.
BEYOND THE BELTWAY
THE ABORTION LANDSCAPE — New research finds that the number of legal abortions in the U.S. actually increased by 0.2% in the first full year after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, WSJ’s Laura Kusisto and Jennifer Calfas report. That surprising result, even as 21 states banned or restricted the procedure, was largely due to women traveling or getting pills through the mail for abortions. Still, experts say some groups of women especially lost access to abortion, particularly poorer and younger ones.
— Georgia’s Supreme Court today allowed the state’s near-total abortion ban to stand, reversing a lower-court ruling and leaving Republicans’ restrictions in place, per The Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
FEDERALISM FILES — “Tennessee GOP is willing to reject millions in funding, if it avoids complying with federal strings,” by AP’s Kimberlee Kruesi in Nashville: “[R]ather than comply with requirements over LGBTQ+ rights, abortion access and other hot-button issues … GOP lawmakers are talking about cutting off nearly $1.8 billion in federal education dollars — much of it targeted to serve low-income students, English learners and students with disabilities.”
2024 WATCH
SPEAKING OUT — Trump has been livid over the gag order imposed on him in his federal election subversion case, WaPo’s Isaac Arnsdorf, Josh Dawsey and Spencer Hsu report — and after the judge temporarily lifted it Friday, he went right back to posting the type of attack that had been barred. But his presidential campaign sees the gag order as a boon, animating his conservative base and once again rallying supporters around him in the primary against the legal system. Fundraising pitches have emphasized it heavily. “He does best as the victim who is being treated unfairly,” says one adviser.
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — The Biden Victory Fund and the Women’s Leadership Forum are hosting a fundraiser for the Biden reelect at HILLARY CLINTON’s D.C. home Nov. 27. The event, billed as dinner and a conversation, costs $50,000 to be named a host and $25,000 for co-host. (h/t Daniel Lippman)
THE AGE-OLD QUESTION — The Biden campaign is making a renewed effort to highlight Trump’s gaffes on the trail, aiming to mute Republicans’ attacks on the president’s age, Semafor’s Shelby Talcott reports. Democrats feel that Trump’s mistakes get way less attention than Biden’s, amid widespread voter skepticism about the incumbent.
LOOK AT HIS BUS — As we prep for an expected presidential campaign launch from Dean Phillips on Friday, he seems to already have a bus and some slogans, per WCCO’s Jason DeRusha: “Make America Affordable Again” and “Everyone’s Invited!”
THE COMPANY HE KEEPS — VIVEK RAMASWAMY has ALEX JONES, the infamous conspiracy theorist whom Ramaswamy labels “the most censored man in the world,” on the latest episode of his podcast, veering pretty far into edgelord/far-right territory.
MORE POLITICS
PRIMARY COLORS — Businessman BERNIE MORENO is picking up NEWT GINGRICH’s endorsement today in the Ohio Senate GOP race, NYT’s Michael Bender reports. Though the primary to take on Democratic Sen. SHERROD BROWN looks to be a tough three-way contest between Moreno, state Sen. MATT DOLAN and Secretary of State FRANK LaROSE, Moreno “has started to compile the kind of political prizes that belie his status as a relative newcomer to electoral politics.”
A DIFFERENT ABORTION APPROACH — In New Jersey’s state legislative races this fall, Democrats are leaning heavily on abortion — but Republicans are deflecting in an unusual way, essentially saying they’d be powerless to actually change much abortion policy and voters should focus on other issues, Matt Friedman reports. It’s a very different strategy from what Republicans at the national level, or even in Virginia this year, are saying, but the Garden State GOP hopes it can blunt Democratic attacks.
A DIFFERENT EARLY VOTING APPROACH — Virginia Republicans are embracing early voting in the state’s tight legislative elections next month, and it’s making Democrats nervous, Axios’ Stef Kight and Hans Nichols report. Jettisoning the party’s Trump-era disdain for early voting, Republicans have shrunk Dems’ typical pre-Election Day margins, especially in close races.
POLICY CORNER
BANK SHOT — “Banks face tougher anti-discrimination rule, setting up possible court fight,” by Katy O’Donnell: “The new rule — which would require banks to increase their lending to low- and moderate-income communities — marks the most significant revision to the Community Reinvestment Act in nearly three decades.”
MEDIAWATCH
KNOWING JESSE WATTERS — The new Fox News 8 p.m. host “is winning back viewers with edgy humor and a sunnier face of right-wing punditry,” WaPo’s Jeremy Barr reports. But he’s skating somewhat under the radar as he transitions from tongue-in-cheek conservative irreverence to more hard-edged rhetoric. That includes his racist comment last week that Palestinians “all love killing Jews” and shouldn’t be distinguished from Hamas. “That whoa-just-kidding presentation could explain why Watters hasn’t drawn the same kind of organized pushback as firebrand hosts such as [TUCKER] CARLSON,” Barr writes. Watters declined an interview for the story.
THE ECONOMY
STRIKE WATCH — The United Auto Workers today again expanded their strike against top automakers, adding an SUV factory for General Motors in Arlington, Texas, per The Dallas Morning News. That pulls another 5,000 workers off the assembly line.
PLAYBOOKERS
OUT AND ABOUT — So Others Might Eat hosted its 37th annual Break the Cycle Gala at Washington National Cathedral on Saturday night, raising $1.1 million to advance its mission to eradicate poverty and homelessness in the Washington region. SPOTTED: Eugene Daniels, Jeanne Shriver, Mark Shriver, Ralph Boyd Jr., Lee DeLong, Bill Bartling, Leslie Hortum and Eric Hoplin.
— SPOTTED at a Their Future. Our Vote. reception at the Marriott Marquis yesterday evening: Reps. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.), Kim Schrier (D-Wash.) and Yadira Caraveo (D-Colo.), Annie Andrews, Renee Harvey and Tyler Jones.
— Creative Artists Agency hosted a Women of Distinction dinner yesterday evening at Centrolina, celebrating Andrea Mitchell, Audie Cornish, Courteney Monroe, Susan Rice and guest of honor Jacinda Ardern. Also SPOTTED: Rachel Adler, Christine Lancman and Judee Ann Williams.
BONUS BIRTHDAY: DOJ’s Carlton Forbes
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