Moldova fears Russia may try to link to breakaway region: ex-PM

ISTANBUL — On Moldova’s Independence Day several years ago, government leaders and diplomats from around the world were watching a military parade in the ex-Soviet nation’s capital, Chisinau.

After a handful of tanks passed, a Russian diplomat cracked a sarcastic joke.

“That’s strange,” he said. “Where’s the fifth one?”

Chiril Gaburici, the former prime minister of Moldova, was there that day. Reflecting on the quip about the limited size of his country’s armed forces, he said it underscores just how vulnerable the nation is.

“It sums up everything you need to know about our army. For my country, it is better to invest in education,” he said in an interview with Nikkei Asia on the sidelines of the Eurasia Economic Summit in Turkey on June 9.

Moldova’s security lies in prompt accession to the European Union, he said, not in seeking membership of NATO, which he believes would provoke serious repercussions from Russia.

Likewise, he is hesitant for Moldova to receive weapons from the West, opting for a more neutral stance.

Chiril Gaburici, a former prime minister of Moldova, says the country “cannot defend itself.”

French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz threw their weight behind Ukraine and Moldova during their visit to Ukraine’s capital Kyiv on Thursday, supporting the idea of granting both countries immediate EU candidate status. The decision is expected to come during a summit of EU leaders this week.

“When I was prime minister in 2015, I was trying to encourage my defense minister to decrease defense spending,” Gaburici said. “Moldova cannot defend itself. We have very limited military equipment. Some [is] very outdated. It is better that these resources be invested in education or infrastructure.”

The landlocked country has a population of around 2.6 million, with a Romanian speaking majority. However, it has had a conflict of its own for 30 years with the mainly Russian speaking minority, which formed a breakaway region in Transdniestria. Moscow sends what it calls “peacekeepers” to protect the area.

The breakaway region, which is not internationally recognized, shares a border with southwest Ukraine. The besieged port of Odesa, Ukraine’s main trade gate to the world, lies 40 km or so away.

Gaburici briefly served as prime minister in 2015 and as economy and infrastructure minister in 2018 and 2019. Moldova is an agricultural nation, he said, noting that the country has been using the port of Odesa for exporting “fruits, vegetables, grapes, wines and grains.”

Such trade has become increasingly difficult under a Russian naval blockade, as well as the sea mines laid by the Ukrainian forces to defend against a Russian attack on the city.

“We are living with these difficulties,” he said. Moldova is also hosting more than 100,000 refugees from Ukraine and inflation has risen to 27%, he added.

“From an economic point of view, Odesa port should be cleared from sea mines as it will leave space for Ukraine and its neighboring countries to get their goods out. But in terms of security, it is a very difficult question. You do something to feed the people, but risk not protecting the people.”

Ukrainians should be given assurances for their safety so they can clear the mines, he proposed.

The United Nations has a plan to open a naval corridor for Ukraine to export millions of tons of grain that have been stranded. The U.N. is trying to assure Russia that the route will not be used to supply weapons to Ukraine. But talks to form such a corridor, in which neighbor Turkey is also lending a hand, are yet to yield any results.

“There is a risk that Russia takes Odesa, then they can connect the territory with Transdniestria,” Gaburici said.

His fears are not unfounded. A high ranking Russian general hinted in April that Moscow’s operation could be extended to Transdniestria.

Major Gen. Rustam Minnekayev, deputy commander of the Central Military District, was quoted by Russian news agencies as saying that control over the south of Ukraine is another way to reach Transdniestria.

The seizure of Transdniestria, south Ukraine and the Donbas region will create a “land corridor” for Russia, the general said.

Moldova’s heavy dependence on Russia on multiple fronts also complicates matters. Gaburici said all the country’s natural gas is imported from Russia, while around 70% of its electricity comes from Transdniestria, where it is generated by Russian gas.

“We don’t have control over the Transdniestria region and don’t know what is happening there,” he said. “We should not provoke anyone as we are very close to the epicenter of actions.”

Asked if Moldova will be next if Russia succeeds in Ukraine, Gaburici said: “I cannot say yes, but I cannot say no either.

“I am very concerned and very worried about my kids, family, parents. We are living with bags ready in case something happens, unfortunately.”

Gaburici said he thinks the Ukraine war could have been avoided if both sides had compromised, adding that EU accession would be better for Ukraine than NATO membership.