GOOD MORNING and welcome to the final COP28 Global Playbook, as the curtain closes on the U.N. climate talks in Dubai.
TAKE YOUR PICK: Depending on your perspective, the last two weeks have been either: A) The most significant climate negotiations since COP21 in 2015, which birthed the Paris Climate Agreement … or B) An exercise in watering down ambitions, which failed to definitively call for the phase-out of fossil fuel or create a concrete implementation plan.
Fact 1: The final declaration marks the first explicit call for countries to transition away from burning fossil fuels since the COP process began three decades ago.
Fact 2: This year saw the biggest representation of fossil fuel companies and their representatives ever at a COP.
TOO LITTLE, TOO LATE? As POLITICO’s Karl Mathiesen, Zia Weise, Zack Colman and Sara Schonhardt report, the climate talks ended with a deal to curb the use of fossil fuels that was both historic — and 30 years too late.
Bottom line: “The talks ended on Wednesday with a deal among almost 200 countries that committed to ‘transitioning away from fossil fuels,’ notably by speeding up that shift before 2030,” my colleagues write. “But the agreement also appeased oil-rich Gulf states by explicitly sanctioning those fuels’ use during the transition.”
Translation: The world isn’t ready to quit oil and coal.
THE SMILING SULTAN: Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber, the under-fire COP28 president and chief executive of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, couldn’t contain his relief as he brought down the gavel on proceedings Wednesday. In fact, such was his rush to get the deal over the line, delegates were instructed to keep their interventions at the final plenary to three minutes.
Not in the room: The Alliance of Small Island States, led this year by Samoa. Al-Jaber pushed the deal through so quickly that representatives for the vulnerable island nations, who were among its most vocal critics, hadn’t even had a chance to enter the plenary room when the gavel came down.
Not happy: “We didn’t want to interrupt the standing ovation when we came into the room, but we are a little confused about what happened,” said Samoa representative Anne Rasmussen. “It seems that you just get on with the decisions and the small island developing states were not in the room.”
BEHIND THE SCENES: Earlier this week, hopes for a deal appeared dead. So how did it get over the line? My POLITICO colleagues reveal that the rescue effort included multiple attempts by U.S. Climate Envoy John Kerry and other American officials to reach out directly to the spoiling Saudis, including talks with Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman.
REALITY CHECKS
EXPECTATIONS VS. REALITY: The POLITICO team spent Wednesday crunching the numbers on the deal to figure out the odds various measures will be implemented. Here, we give you a reality check for two of the key elements …
Expectation: We start with the much-touted pledge to double energy-saving efforts until 2030. As Giovanna Coi reports, countries would need to cut their energy intensity — the amount of energy used per unit of GDP — at least twice as fast between 2023 and 2030 as they did in previous years.
Reality: Ain’t gonna happen.
Expectation: The final text called for the development of carbon capture and other technologies touted by fossil fuel and high-emitting industries — but as Corbin Hiar and Sara Schonhardt write, the UAE’s own experience with carbon capture projects has been limited, to say the least.
Reality: Unlikely.
NEXT STOP BAKU: As Azerbaijan prepares to host next year’s COP, here’s a grim reminder of the geo-political reality that embroils the region: More than 150 business and political leaders, including former U.N. Climate Envoy Mary Robinson, have signed a letter calling for the immediate release of Armenian prisoners held in the country, whose decades-long conflict with its neighbor erupted this fall, culminating in Azerbaijan’s seizure of Nagorno-Karabakh.
SPEAKING OF HUMAN RIGHTS: The UAE is hardly a paragon of democracy. While delegates were thrashing out agreement on the COP28 final text in recent days, dozens of people were summoned to appear in court in Abu Dhabi on what critics are calling trumped-up terror charges on December 7, according to the Emirates Detainees Advocacy Center.
Among them: Ahmed Mansoor, the Emirati activist highlighted in our November 30 Global Playbook.
COP’S TOP BROMANCE
SWANSONG: One of the big beasts of the climate jungle is retiring after this year’s COP: Chinese envoy Xie Zhenhua. Showcasing a bromance that has flourished over the years with John Kerry, the duo gave a joint final press conference Wednesday afternoon, featuring hugs and much mutual back-slapping.
No sign of the wolf warrior: Xie said he’d brought his young grandson to this year’s COP because the 8-year-old wanted to say “happy birthday to my good friend Mr. Kerry,” who turned 80 on Monday. “I would like to invite you to join me to wish my good old friend good health and a happy life,” Xie added. Watch an excerpt here.
Seeing as we’re doing reality checks today: For all that bonhomie, China and the United States are still the world’s two biggest emitters. And the U.S. came in for significant criticism for donating a measly $17 million to the big achievement of the first few days of COP — the loss and damage fund for poorer countries hit hard by climate change. For comparison, the UAE and Germany each donated $100 million.
TAKING STOCK
WHERE WE LANDED: As delegates raced to the airport — or enjoyed Dubai’s delights/bemoaned their decision to book a Friday flight out of town — Playbook spoke to some top attendees about their takeaways.
Ruth Nankabirwa Ssentamu, energy minister of Uganda: “COP28 has marked significant progress, securing commitments on loss and damage, tripling renewables and advancing technological and capacity-building initiatives,” she said. But, the transition “must be characterized by fairness and equity … It is imperative that Africa, along with the broader Global South, no longer shoulder the burden of the sins of the Global North.”
Wopke Hoekstra, EU commissioner for climate action: “This is a really significant moment. The final agreement is aligned with what the EU has wanted — the beginning of the end of fossil fuel,” he said. “The EU wanted to phase out fossil fuel,” and the agreement is doing “exactly that.”
Cindy Levy, senior partner, McKinsey & Company: “We’re leaving Dubai with a sense that progress is indeed happening. As well as a long-awaited agreement to implement a loss and damage fund, a pledge by 118 governments to triple renewables, we also saw a spate of climate action across the real economy — throughout industries, and within organizations. There is now near-universal recognition of the need to accelerate action towards 1.5 degrees among private sector leaders.”
Alex Scott of climate think tank E3G: “COP28 hasn’t solved the climate crisis, but countries have taken a decisive step to transition away from fossil fuels, deliver on global targets on adaptation, and start to scale up finance for climate action. Attention now shifts to implementation. Ministers need to live up to their Dubai promises in new national climate plans due by 2025.”
BYE BYE DUBAI
(NOT) SPOTTED: There were no sightings of Santa at the COP28 site on Wednesday — but Playbook is sure he’ll pop up soon, along with the plastic snowmen and winter grottos. The Dubai Expo will reopen as a Winter Wonderland from Friday — the show must go on.
FANCY SOME REAL ESTATE? Playbook couldn’t help notice a deluge of ads on social media feeds from the Expo City Dubai accounts in the final days of COP showcasing new four- and five-bedroom villas for sale. The Expo City site has a sales center, if you want to drop by — assuming you have a cool 6.1 million dirham to drop.
DON’T FORGET TO LOG OFF: If you’re reading this as you head to the airport, don’t forget to dispose of your SIM card (assuming you actually used it). For those who weren’t on the ground: COP visitors were gifted a SIM at the airport — but given concerns about surveillance in the UAE, most quickly ditched the freebie.
WE’LL BE BACK SOON: Keep an eye in your inbox for POLITICO’s next Global Playbook, coming to you from Davos, where the World Economic Forum kicks off mid-January. See you on the ski slopes!
THANKS TO: Karl Mathiesen, Zia Weise, Zack Colman, Sara Schonhardt, Bob King, Cory Bennett, Seb Starcevic.
Global Playbook couldn’t happen without Global Playbook Editor Zoya Sheftalovich.
