WELCOME TO POLITICO’S INAUGURAL GLOBAL PLAYBOOK, coming to you from the glitzy coastal city of Dubai. Some 70,000 politicians, climate activists and legions of lobbyists are descending on this oil-rich land for 13 days of climate negotiations, bilateral confabs and some serious networking.
I’m Suzanne Lynch, and I’ll be beaming the news, analysis and gossip into your inboxes each morning from the U.N. climate talks, as delegates navigate the sweltering temperatures, traffic snarls — and the late-night parties.
FIRST THINGS FIRST: WHO THOUGHT IT WAS A GOOD IDEA TO HOLD A CLIMATE CHANGE CONFERENCE IN THE UAE? Err, John Kerry, for one. A “terrific choice,” the veteran U.S. climate envoy said of the appointment of COP28 chief Sultan al-Jaber. Just don’t mention the fact that the face of the global fight against climate change is also the head of one of the world’s biggest oil companies, the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc).
Greenwash of the day: Proving that the UAE — one of the world’s largest oil producers — was the right host for COP was always going to be a monumental challenge for the organizers. Luckily, this piece by the FT offers a generous view, highlighting all the lovely money the UAE has been plowing into green projects.
Just (don’t) stop oil! But a slew of document dumps have dampened the mood in Dubai. The BBC reported this week that the UAE schemed to use its position as host to lobby for oil and gas deals with more than a dozen countries, citing leaked documents published by the Centre for Climate Reporting.
Fuming in Dubai: In a tense moment at Wednesday’s pre-COP press conference, al-Jaber trashed the allegations as “false, not true, incorrect and not accurate” and “an attempt to undermine the work of the COP28 presidency.”
Sorry, not sorry: “So please, for once, respect who we are,” he told the room full of journalists. Never fear — POLITICO will (not) be on our best behavior.
HUMAN RIGHTS PLIGHT: Also a source of pressure on the Emiratis: their human rights track record. Hamad Al Shamsi, who heads the Emirates Detainees Advocacy Center, highlighted the plight of dozens of people languishing in prison, including well-known activist Ahmed Mansoor. “It’s a message to society that if you start calling for reform, or if you start doing any civil society work you will be detained indefinitely in prison,” he said of the Emirati authorities ahead of COP.
But don’t let those inconvenient truths get in the way of a good time! Still, concerns about the UAE’s climate and human rights record haven’t pricked the conscience of big business. There were some early wobbles among corporates about sponsorship tie-ups according to several executives who spoke to POLITICO, but all signs are that this will be the best-attended COP yet.
REPORT FROM THE BLUE ZONE
ON THE GROUND AT DUBAI EXPO: All the action over the next two weeks is at Dubai Expo, the sprawling futuristic complex on the outskirts of the city that was built for Expo 2020. The dome-shaped structure dominates the area, which is divided into “Blue” and “Green” zones.
The hottest ticket: Demand is soaring for the much-coveted blue passes, which open doors to the U.N.-run zone. (Playbook has one, naturally — we’ll keep you in the loop.) Lines formed throughout Wednesday for entry to the Blue Zone, despite events not kicking off in earnest until today.
Hope you packed a hard hat and steel-capped boots: Playbook was somewhat surprised to witness construction workers in action on the eve of the conference. We’re assured all will be ready for today. Let’s see …
TRANSPORT TIP: TAKE THE SUBWAY: Organizers urged delegates to take the metro to Dubai Expo, with blue-pass-holders getting free travel. Having tried both Uber and the public transport options, Playbook can confirm the metro is the way to go.
How the other half lives: The lines of blacked-out private cars waiting to whisk delegates from Dubai Airport overnight hinted at a different class of COP delegate.
RIP: No doubt much of the chatter today around the Blue Zone will be about the death of former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, announced overnight. Read our obituary here.
THE GUEST LIST
WHO’S HERE: Former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton; Former Mayor of New York City Mike Bloomberg; Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates; King Charles III; Fashionista Stella McCartney; U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres; Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva; French President Emmanuel Macron; Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi; British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak; Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez; Prime Minister of Barbados Mia Mottley.
WHO’S NOT: U.S. President Joe Biden; Chinese President Xi Jinping; Russian President Vladimir Putin; Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau; Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.
Also a no-show: Pope Francis. Alas, the first in-person trip by a pope to the U.N.’s climate talks failed to materialize. Francis was forced to cancel his planned three-day visit to Dubai due to health concerns. Playbook promises to duck into the Faith Pavilion in the Green Zone and provide a full report.
WHO KNOWS? Climate activist Greta Thunberg; Just Stop Oil; Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
LAST MINUTE RSVP: U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris confirmed Wednesday night that she will jet in for COP, an effort perhaps by the White House to quell concerns among some Democrats who complain that Biden is not making the trip. Harris will be in town Friday and Saturday — my colleague Zack Colman has more.
BATTLE OF THE BLING: There aren’t many who give the Emiratis a run for their money when it comes to diamonds, glitz and bling — except perhaps King Charles. The British monarch, a tree-hugger since before it was cool, is one of the most high-profile attendees this year (after being unceremoniously blocked by the U.K. government from attending COP27 in Sharm El-Sheikh).
Royal flush: Charles is the guest of honor at tonight’s Business & Philanthropy Climate Forum “royal reception” at Expo City, along with Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan of the UAE. The shindig kicks off at 6 p.m. Playbook is looking forward to the pap snaps from that one.
How many private jets does it take to get the Brits to a climate change conference? The U.K. was facing questions about the fact it was sending three jets to COP — one each to ferry the king, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and newly appointed Foreign Secretary David Cameron to the talks. Too bad they couldn’t jet-pool to save the planet.
WHAT’S AT STAKE AT COP28
IT’S NOT ALL GLITZ AND GLAM WHEN THE WORLD IS ON FIRE: Now to the actual point of COP: the U.N. talks are meant to be a crucial moment for the global community to come together to advance work on the climate crisis.
Breaking all the wrong records: A U.N. report released last week warned that the Earth is on track to heat up by 3 degrees Celsius if aggressive action isn’t taken. That effectively rips up the pledge to keep temperature rises well below 2C above pre-industrial levels, enshrined in the Paris Agreement that countries adopted at COP21 in 2015.
Chaser: This scene-setter by POLITICO’s energy and climate maestros Karl Mathiesen, Charlie Cooper and Zack Colman sets up what’s at stake between now and December 12, when the conference is due to wrap up.
THINGS TO WATCH FOR AS NEGOTIATIONS GET UNDER WAY …
1. Agreement on a ‘loss and damage’ fund to help poorer countries was one of the key achievements of the COP27 summit in Egypt last year. Will countries now cough up the cash? Earlier this month negotiators grudgingly agreed that the World Bank would host the fund on an interim basis (developing countries want a stand-alone fund), but huge question marks hang over the entire issue of climate financing. Nonetheless, my colleague Zia Weise here on the ground reports that the structure of the fund could be agreed as early as today — removing the contentious item from the rest of the conference agenda and shifting the attention to putting money into the fund. Full story here, by Zia, Karl and Sara Schonhardt.
2. A commitment to phase out fossil fuel is in many ways the holy grail of the COP negotiations, but securing an agreement to stop burning coal, oil and gas will be a tough sell for many of the 190-plus delegations here in Dubai. Already, some of the big oil-producing countries have been emphasizing technologies like carbon-capture and carbon dioxide removal rather than taking a hot, hard look at the reality of fossil fuel damage. Expect more on the age-old battle between those who want to phase down rather than phase out fossil fuels, as favored by the EU and climate-vulnerable countries.
3. A ‘global stocktake’ on the Paris Agreement is a key component of this year’s COP. Expect big warnings about how the world is falling short.
SPOTTED IN DUBAI
U.S. Climate Envoy John Kerry in the “leadership pavilion,” the salubrious centerpiece of the Blue Zone where heads of state and other leaders will meet.
Jim Skea, chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, chilling out at Japanese restaurant Yamanote in the Blue Zone.
COP WISHLISTS
MOST WANTED: Playbook asked a selection of top global decision-makers about their expectations for COP28.
Mary Robinson, the chair of the Climate Governance Commission and former U.N. special envoy for climate change, said the summit needs to be a “turning point” on global governance of the climate emergency. “COP28 is a pivotal moment for the climate. Devastating impacts are happening right now, and the science shows us the crisis is on track to get much, much worse. However, we know the policy solutions needed to tackle the climate crisis — we just lack the leadership needed to implement them.”
Sheikh Hasina, the prime minister of Bangladesh, cited loss and damage as a priority. “We are not a major producer but we are a victim of emissions. Countries who are responsible should come forward and commit to loss and damage. This is a hugely important issue for countries such as Bangladesh. Emitter countries need to realize that even with small assistance, people’s lives can be changed. Their lives can be secured.”
Mohamed Jameel Al Ramahi, CEO of Masdar, the UAE’s state-owned renewable energy company, placed the emphasis on renewables. “At COP28, the world must unite around ambitious renewable energy commitments. The presidency has made it clear that, if we are to keep 1.5 degrees within reach, we need to triple global renewables capacity by the end of the decade. Masdar, and our partners in the renewables sector, stand ready to answer this call.”
Jeanne d’Arc Mujawamariya, environment minister of Rwanda said: “COP28 will be a success if we see the loss and damage fund operational, and if the global stocktake leads to faster emissions cuts by the major polluters. That’s the only way to keep the 1.5 degree goal alive.”
Giuseppe Sala, mayor of Milan and vice chair of C40, the cities climate leadership group told Playbook: “The decisions at COP28 will either collectively advance our efforts, enabling cities to fully confront the climate crisis, or hinder us by limiting our capabilities … Mayors are often facing these challenges on their own, however, this is not a task we can accomplish in isolation. This COP we urge national and regional leaders to collaborate with us actively, focusing on action rather than delay.”
Amy Brachio, EY global vice chair, sustainability, said: “We are still a long way from having enough green talent, green skills, and green jobs to complete the green transformation. Being able to call upon a diversified workforce that is equipped with a broad range of skills, both technical and knowledge related, will be key to delivering a just transition.”
WHAT’S HAPPENING TODAY
— Opening ceremony at 1 p.m. in Plenary Al Hairat, Blue Zone.
— High-level session on systems change and innovation for climate and sustainability action, throughout the day, at the U.N. Climate Change Global Innovation Hub, Zone B2.
— Friends of the Earth press conference at 11 a.m. in Press Conference 2.
MORNING READS
— The Climate Finance Files, a new report out this morning by ONE, states that nearly two-thirds of climate finance commitments counted by the OECD between 2013 and 2021 were never disbursed or had little connection to climate (that’s a cool $343 billion).
— Also out this morning is a report by the World Economic Forum highlighting the role social innovators can play, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, in fostering climate adaptation.
— Get the low-down ahead of time from Mark Carney, U.N. special envoy for climate finance and action, the guest on this week’s Power Play podcast. “What we’ll be looking for at COP is who steps up amongst the oil and gas companies and commits to not doing something in the distant future, but doing something over the next few years,” he tells POLITICO’s Anne McElvoy. Listen here.
GET IN TOUCH … with any tips, news or party invites at [email protected].
THANKS TO: Zia Weise and Karl Mathiesen.
Playbook couldn’t happen without Global Playbook Editor Zoya Sheftalovich.
